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Weather prediction and then reality

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ChristopherBlackwell Post number 25863 Posted: 15th September 2019     Subject: Weather prediction and then reality
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We get an unusual number of weather predictions for extreme weather, that either rarely happens or is not extreme weather by local standards. One of my favorites is predictions of extreme thunderstorms, flash floods with high winds and hail. I don't what is strong wind elsewhere, but here 20 to 30 MPH winds are rather normal when we have wind. So gusts of 40 to 50 MPH are not that rare either. The high desert does not have much to stop, or even slow down wind.

We used to have heavy rain, but that is rarer now. Most often rain is elsewhere. But it can create an odd situation, whereas one part of the country is getting drought relief, while the other end is getting flood relief. Rain can vary greatly. I have seen rain storms where the individual drops are far enough a part that you can walk around in it for fifteen minutes and not even get you damp. Often we are lucky if we get enough to even dampen the ground. I don't even consider it a good rain unless we have running water down my drive way, and left over puddles afterward. Then there is the rare rain, so thick that I cannot see the highway, seventy feet from my window. Yes I can remember a rain that made the desert look like a swamp. But even that was not enough to refresh our water table.

Snow is a matter of how the jet stream goes, from the West, and the mountains hold back rain or snow. Or it can dip down into Baha California and we can get snowstorms, or a good rain.

Hail, I have only seen on a couple of occasions and only noticeable once.

So for the last three days they have promised us a thunderstorm, we have had clouds, sometimes thunder, but no visible rain or lightning. We finally had it this afternoon, enough to send water down my driveway and puddles leftover today.

Wisdom is what is left after you have done all the dumb stuff
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